Dodgers Lining Up the Dollars

Reading USA Today, I was struck by today's article from Bob Nightengale. https://www.thestar.com/sports/baseball/opinion/2017/12/17/dodgers-braves-swap-stocks-vaults-for-next-free-agent-frenzy.html In it, he states that the big Dodgers/Braves trade was a money dump by both teams, with the Dodgers now in the running for the Bryce Harper sweepstakes of 2018. He also makes a point of conjecturing that this means Harper will be wearing Dodger blue and Manny Machado will don Yankee pinstripes in 2019. I think it's way too early to make these kind of prognostications. Major League Baseball has a tendency to be placid when it comes to these situations in the last ten years or so. Personally, I think Harper stays in DC and Machado takes his talents out of Baltimore. But, I don't think we're talking an A-Rod type extravaganza. We'll see it coming well ahead of time, and few fans will be caught off guard. Machado at Yankee Stadium? Definitely a strong possibility.

Why the Nationals Must Retain Bryce Harper

There is no question in my mind that the Nationals must keep Bryce Harper and not lose him to free agency. Sure, Harper has ties we all know about. His connection with Las Vegas and the western U.S. His number 34, a mathematical homage to Mickey Mantle. Plus, I'm sure the way the Nats have ended their seasons has not boded well for a superstar who hasn't even reached his full potential yet. Still, Washington must find a way to get a deal done with Harper by next winter.

With Daniel Murphy, Shawn Kelley, and Gio Gonzalez coming off the payroll after the 2018 season, there should be money for Harper. Some of you may be saying that one superstar is not worth losing three very good players, two of which had great seasons that they will probably carry into 2018. I don't agree. This is the kind of thinking that breeds mediocrity in modern sports, and Washington has had it's fair share of mediocrity. There is still plenty of offensive punch on this team, and more coming up through the minors. Also, if you need a little more protection, you could pick up a Jay Bruce in 2019 for relatively little expenditure. It can work.

Also, Harper is the star for the Nationals, meaning that he will not be upstaged by any other player on the team. Say what you want about Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, or Anthony Rendon. They can't even approach the superstar power of Harper, and Scherzer has won the Cy Young two years in a row! Harper has swagger and ego that will not adjust well to a multi-superstar team.

But, if you are a numbers junkie, check out this write up from the Washington Post:

"A talent like Harper doesn’t hit the market often. Since entering the majors as a 19-year-old in 2012, he has batted .285 with an OPS of .902, creating runs at a rate that is 41 percent higher than the league average after accounting for league and park effects (141 wRC+), placing him 11th overall in that span. His 27.7 Wins Above Replacement, as calculated by FanGraphs.com, rank 10th, and that’s why it’s going to cost a king’s ransom to keep him in a Nationals uniform."

Also from that same article,

"It was calculated in 2013 that one marginal win is worth $7 million, while FanGraphs assesses Harper’s 2017 campaign of 4.8 WAR to be worth $38.3 million on the open market, making it closer to $8 million per win in today’s free agent environment. If we use an aging curve that keeps Harper’s projected production steady until age 30, then subtract 0.25 WAR each year from ages 31 to 35, all while increasing the cost of a win in free agency by 5 percent each year, Harper would be worth almost $567 million through 2028. An aging curve consisting of players who have had similar careers through their age-24 season — a list that includes Frank Robinson, Hank Aaron and Ken Griffey Jr. — has Harper worth $562 million from 2019 to 2028. If we use a more aggressive aging curve, one that keeps his production steady through 2020, his age-27 season, before seeing a 0.25 WAR decline each year over the next eight seasons, his estimated 10-year value as a free agent drops to $507 million."

While this may be higher than I think, it illustrates Harper's value in the current market, and also illustrates why the Nationals need to do everything in their power to keep him in D.C. The Yankees are effectively off the table after the Stanton trade, and I don't believe the Angels are going for a Trout/Harper combo now that they have acquired the international jewel, Shohei Ohtani. But the Dodgers and Cubs could make serious bids for his services, and effectively doom the Nationals' NL East supremacy. The Phillies have a lot of money to spend and some solid future talent. Plus, the Mets are not as bad as they seemed last year. Taking Bryce out of the division sets loose the sharks of the NL East to feed on the Nats, and further alienates a fan base looking for a true postseason.

The Largest Trade in Baseball History

In the wake of Giancarlo Stanton's move to the Yankees and the Winter Meetings, Pinstripe Alley printed a story on the largest trade in baseball history by number of players. It was between the Yankees and Orioles in 1954. Don Larsen and Bob Turley are the two significant names in this trade. A lot of quantity, but not a ton of quality, as you'll see in the article. https://www.pinstripealley.com/2017/12/9/16710222/yankees-orioles-trade-baseball-history-don-larsen